Análisis de las tendencias socioeconómicas 2020-2022 del sector hidrocarburos en el distrito especial de Barrancabermeja mediante la metodología (MICMAC)
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Date
2024-06-10
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Publisher
Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios - UNIMINUTO
Type
Tesis de Maestría
Rights
Acceso Abierto - http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 2.5 Colombia
Abstract
Esta investigación se centró en evaluar el impacto de las tendencias socioeconómicas en el sector hidrocarburos del Distrito Especial de Barrancabermeja entre 2020 y 2022. El objetivo fue comprender las influencias y dependencias entre diversas variables para identificar aquellas que son críticas y podrían actuar como catalizadores de cambio para un desarrollo sostenible en el futuro. La metodología empleada fue de carácter cuantitativo correlacional, empleando información secundaria como estadísticas oficiales, informes sectoriales y estudios relacionados con la economía local y dinámica petrolera. A través del uso de la metodología MICMAC, se destacaron dos variables clave fundamentales: la inversión en exploración y producción, y la inversión privada en la región. Se emplearon herramientas como la Matriz de Influencias Directas (MID), la Matriz de Influencias Indirectas (MII) y la Matriz de Influencias Directas Potenciales (MIDP) para identificar y priorizar las áreas más críticas de intervención. Variables como la producción de petróleo, los precios internacionales del petróleo y las exportaciones fueron claves en este análisis. Además, se utilizó el software MORPHOL para realizar un análisis morfológico, facilitando la construcción de tres escenarios futuros evaluados según la mayor probabilidad de ocurrencia, ofreciendo una visión prospectiva que se sustenta en estimaciones cuantitativas de su viabilidad.
This research focused on assessing the impact of socioeconomic trends on the hydrocarbon sector in the Special District of Barrancabermeja between 2020 and 2022. The goal was to understand the influences and dependencies among various variables to identify those that are critical and could act as catalysts for sustainable development in the future. The methodology employed was quantitative correlational, using secondary data such as official statistics, sector reports, and studies related to the local economy and oil dynamics. Through the use of the MICMAC methodology, two key fundamental variables were highlighted: investment in exploration and production, and private investment in the region. Tools such as the Matrix of Direct Influences (MID), the Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII), and the Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MIDP) were used to identify and prioritize the most critical areas for intervention. Variables such as oil production, international oil prices, and exports were key in this analysis. Additionally, the MORPHOL software was used to perform a morphological analysis, facilitating the construction of three future scenarios evaluated according to the highest probability of occurrence, offering a prospective vision supported by quantitative estimates of their feasibility.
This research focused on assessing the impact of socioeconomic trends on the hydrocarbon sector in the Special District of Barrancabermeja between 2020 and 2022. The goal was to understand the influences and dependencies among various variables to identify those that are critical and could act as catalysts for sustainable development in the future. The methodology employed was quantitative correlational, using secondary data such as official statistics, sector reports, and studies related to the local economy and oil dynamics. Through the use of the MICMAC methodology, two key fundamental variables were highlighted: investment in exploration and production, and private investment in the region. Tools such as the Matrix of Direct Influences (MID), the Matrix of Indirect Influences (MII), and the Matrix of Potential Direct Influences (MIDP) were used to identify and prioritize the most critical areas for intervention. Variables such as oil production, international oil prices, and exports were key in this analysis. Additionally, the MORPHOL software was used to perform a morphological analysis, facilitating the construction of three future scenarios evaluated according to the highest probability of occurrence, offering a prospective vision supported by quantitative estimates of their feasibility.
Description
Evaluar el impacto de las tendencias socioeconómicas del sector hidrocarburos en
el Distrito Especial de Barrancabermeja.
Keywords
Strategic Planning, Hydrocarbon Sector, Scenarios, Futures Studies, Planificación estratégica, Sector hidrocarburos, Escenarios, Prospectiva, MICMAC, NATURAL SCIENCES::Biology::Organism biology::Morphology